Tracking a working thesis against measurable indicators and dated, cited events.
Working thesisTrump will use war or military conflict to retain control and push the US toward autocratic rule, with his family keeping ultimate control.
This is a working thesis being tracked, not an established fact. The page records only cited, verifiable facts and published indices. Evidence that weakens the thesis is shown alongside evidence that supports it. Nothing here is a quote unless it is linked to its source.
Democracy scores
Expert-coded indices are slow-moving and published annually, so a year of change is large. V-Dem's US liberal democracy index fell from 0.751 (2024) to 0.571 (2025). Freedom House scores fell from 34 to 32 for political rights and from 50 to 49 for civil liberties.
National emergencies declared under the National Emergencies Act, by president
declarations
Counted by this site from the Wikipedia list (marked 'incomplete' by its editors; entries cite Federal Register/CRS). Terms differ in length; Trump 2nd term is to date. Cross-check with the Brennan Center tracker.
The thesis predicts that military force is used to concentrate power. Domestic Guard federalisation is the most direct indicator.
4 Oct 2025: about 300 Illinois National Guard members were federalised under 10 U.S.C. §12406(3); Texas Guard members followed (SCOTUSblog).
23 Dec 2025: in Trump v. Illinois (25A443) the Supreme Court denied the administration's request for a stay, 6–3, leaving the deployment blocked (order).
What to watch
New federalisations of state Guard units over a governor's objection.
Deployments near polling places in the run-up to 3 November 2026.
Use of force abroad without congressional authorisation, and any War Powers votes.
The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 (opinion by Roberts) that IEEPA does not authorise the tariffs, a limit on emergency economic powers (opinion).
3 Nov 2026 · upcoming
Midterm elections
All 435 House seats and about a third of the Senate (USA.gov). Watch whether the vote is held and certified normally.
7 Nov 2028 · upcoming
Presidential election
The next scheduled presidential election. Watch for any attempt to run for a third term or to delay the vote, and for family members as candidates.
What to watch
Family roles: formal government or campaign positions held by Trump family members. There is no sourced entry yet; add one with a citation when it happens.
Court compliance: whether adverse rulings are obeyed.
Live prices from public prediction markets, snapshotted by scripts/update_markets.py. A price of 30% means traders pay about 30¢ for a contract that pays $1 if the event happens; treat it as a crowd estimate, not a fact. Polymarket and Kalshi are real-money markets (Kalshi is CFTC-regulated); Manifold uses play money and is often thin. Long-dated and low-volume markets are poorly calibrated. Each market's exact resolution rules on the platform decide what counts, so read them before relying on a headline question.
2.9M contracts · 341k open interest · closes 2029-01-21 · as of 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC
Snapshot fetched 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC from public APIs (Polymarket Gamma/CLOB, Kalshi trade API, Manifold v0). Prices are what traders are paying, not my forecasts and not advice; thin or long-dated markets can be far off. Sparklines show daily prices over up to 120 days. Metaculus: API now requires an authenticated account token (HTTP 403 without one) and the website is behind a bot challenge, so Metaculus forecasts are not included. Add a ref type with a personal token later if wanted.
How to add a market
Add a ref to "markets" → "groups" → "refs" in src/themes/<slug>.json: {"platform":"polymarket","event":"<slug after /event/ in the URL>"}, {"platform":"kalshi","event":"<EVENT_TICKER>"} or {"platform":"manifold","id":"<market id or slug>"}. Optional: "markets" (list of specific sub-market slugs or tickers), "max", "sort" (date, prob or api). Then run python3 scripts/update_markets.py <slug> and rebuild.
Notes & journal
Dated observations from src/notes/trump-war-autocracy.md. Add a new entry with a ## YYYY-MM-DD Title heading.
24 Oct 2026
Baseline
V-Dem US liberal democracy is 0.571 (2025, down from 0.751). Freedom House political rights are 32/40 and civil liberties 49/60. Next hard milestone: the midterms on 3 Nov 2026.
To add when sourced: War Powers reports and any family members appointed to formal roles.
